A turning point has come on the 2024 offseason calendar as ESPN has revealed its preseason FPI 133 team college football rankings, giving fans a headstart on where to rank the contenders and the pretenders ahead of what figures to be a historic football season.
More: ESPN reveals full 2024 college football rankings
And: Predicting college football's best, worst teams in 2024
With conference expansion and realignment and an expanded College Football Playoff both making their debut this season, going undefeated will become harder than ever before. Which teams have the best chance to run the table, according to the FPI analytics?
10. Florida State
2.3 percent chance. The only ACC team to make the top 10 on this list, the Seminoles lose a ton of production but also gained plenty after another aggressive turn in the transfer portal to replenish key skill positions, including the addition of quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and ex-Alabama wide receiver Malik Benson.
2.6 percent chance. Over six years in FBS, Liberty has never had a losing season and has played in five straight bowl games, and in 2024 returns what should be a dynamic offense. The question remains if the secondary will hold the Flames back from reaching their potential. Kansas brings back Jalon Daniels under center and Devin Neal in the backfield, but lost its offensive coordinator. KU goes to West Virginia, Kansas State, and BYU.
8. Alabama
3.4 percent chance. The changeover from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer finds the Tide further down on some of these preseason lists than in recent years, but Bama still retains a reserve of top-flight talent despite some expected transfer losses. Jalen Milroe returns and the front seven looks promising, but how well can this line protect its quarterback? Kadyn Proctor's return certainly helps, but the unit was a weakness last fall.
3.9 percent chance. The Dukes were 13 points from being undefeated a year ago, losing two of their last three after starting 10-0. Now they lost their head coach, quarterback, and top receiver, but new coach Bob Chesney scored key transfers, especially at running back, to compensate for a roster that should be in the thick of the Sun Belt race all year.
6. Texas
6.8 percent chance. Heading into the SEC at a good time for the program, the Longhorns face a tough slate that includes a road game against Michigan, a home tilt with Georgia, and the season finale at Texas A&M, but they have the roster to contend in all those matchups.
7.1 percent chance. An expanded playoff will help the Nittany Lions get back onto the national stage after playing third fiddle to OSU and Michigan in the Big Ten the last few years. The Allen/Singleton pairing in the backfield is key, as will be maintaining the team's defensive output from a year ago, but how far can quarterback Drew Allar take this offense?
4. Ohio State
7.5 percent chance. Dropping three straight to Michigan forced the Buckeyes to raid the transfer portal, and they came away with some blue-chip pieces, including ex-Alabama safety Caleb Downs, quarterback Will Howard, and two-time SEC rushing champ Quinshon Judkins, among others. They'll pair well with key returning experience in the front seven, running back, and receiver. Michigan comes to the Horseshoe this year, but there's also a road trip to Oregon.
10.8 percent chance. A half-dozen returning starters on defense and an expected nine back on offense, including quarterback Carson Beck coming off a superb outing last fall, puts the Bulldogs in pole position in the national title odds race this preseason. But Georgia plays a hard schedule that includes road games against Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss, all contenders of a kind in their own right.
2. Oregon
15.7 percent chance. A newcomer to the Big Ten, the Ducks are already getting play as a credible conference title contender thanks to a pair of dominant lines and elite transfers like quarterback Dillon Gabriel and wide receiver Evan Stewart to beef up an already-impressive offensive rotation. Oregon gets Ohio State at home, but goes to Michigan and Wisconsin.
15.8 percent chance. Marcus Freeman enters Year 3 boasting one of college football's best pass defenses, but doing some surgery on an offense that loses two key edge blockers, its quarterback, and lead rusher. Riley Leonard steps in at QB and Beaux Collins at WR, and aside from the opener at Texas A&M, the Irish play a winnable schedule. Florida State comes to play in front of Touchdown Jesus late in the year, and there's a road trip to USC in the finale.
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