Revised Ukraine Winter Response Plan, October 2023 – March 2024, Issued September 2023 [EN/UK] - Ukraine (2024)

This document gives an overview of the activities outlined in the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) to address specific humanitarian needs caused or exacerbated by the cold season in Ukraine. The number of people targeted and total funding required are part of the response prioritization and financial requirements of the HRP and a further estimation to include the three first months of 2024. Additional assessments – including through the ongoing Humanitarian Programme Cycle exercise for 2024 – will be carried out to determine the need for a revision of people in need, targeted and financial requests before the end of the year to ensure adequate response in the first months of 2024.

Analysis of the Situation

The war in Ukraine has caused widespread destruction of homes, massive displacement and devastated vital infrastructure, including energy, water and heating systems, leaving millions of people vulnerable to the upcoming extremely cold winter.

The onset of winter conditions in Ukraine – which typically starts around October – brings a new dimension to the grave humanitarian crisis in a country where the war has left nearly 18 million, or half of its population, in need of aid. Millions of people, particularly those taking shelter in displacement centres – often ill-suited for the cold season – or people in front-line communities, living in damaged homes or without access to heating, could face a perilous winter, as temperatures drop below -20 degrees Celsius. The freezing weather makes life even more difficult and puts in danger communities already overwhelmed by the challenges caused by intense hostilities, destruction, loss of jobs and livelihoods, and limited access to water, heating and other essential services.

An estimated 1.4 million homes in Ukraine have been damaged or destroyed since the escalation of the war in February 2022, according to the Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment, published in March 2023. The situation is particularly worrying in front-line communities across Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska, Zaporizka, Khersonska and Mykolaivska oblasts, where attacks continue to cause damage to homes and add to the already massive destruction, which is further exacerbated by the floods caused by the Kahkovka dam disaster. People in these communities – mostly older people, people with disabilities or other vulnerable groups – are often forced to live in homes with leaking roofs, broken windows, and damaged walls. This hampers their ability to keep warm and stay protected against harsh temperatures. Damages to water systems, electricity and gas networks exacerbate the situation and increase the risks.

Nearly 5.1 million people remain internally displaced across Ukraine, with between 2 and 3 million of them seeking refuge in front-line oblasts of Ukraine, where humanitarian needs are most acute. People uprooted by the war, including those trying to return home or coming back to Ukraine from abroad, face specific challenges and risks. Displacement sites – hosting over 116,000 people – are often ill-prepared for the winter, and the lack of maintenance or damage affects heating systems, water, electricity and gas supplies. Close to 30 per cent of the centres will require some sort of repair to prepare them for winter. After more than a year of displacement, people taking shelter in these sites are exhausting their coping mechanisms and have limited capacity to purchase essential items like warm clothes or blankets. There are also a number of displaced people living in individual rented homes that lack proper insulation or heating systems. Even in places where heating is available, families might face challenges to afford to pay for it, as rising living costs are coupled with loss of income and depletion of savings.

People already facing dire needs might be forced to make hard choices between food and warmth, and support to sustain or restore livelihoods, particularly in rural areas, will be crucial. The impact of the war on livelihoods pushes the most vulnerable to the brink, and increased living costs during the winter due to the need to pay for heating, fuel, or warm clothes can force many to reduce food consumption. The price of essential commodities is likely to rise further. Moreover, in areas under active hostilities, goods might become scarce or unavailable altogether due to market disruptions.

New attacks on energy infrastructure, water and gas systems could further aggravate the situation. In the last quarter of 2022, waves of attacks on power systems led to a severe energy crisis, leaving millions without electricity, water or heating in the middle of the winter. Although the Government of Ukraine informed that power generation capacity will be completely restored at the beginning of the winter, and that the country has stored enough gas to cover 80 per cent of the demand, any additional shock could lead to another energy crisis. Already, in some areas of Donetska, Khakivska or Khersonska oblasts, recent attacks reported in July caused power cuts and the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June hampered access to water and electricity to hundreds of thousands of people in southern Ukraine.

Response Strategy

In the first eight months of 2023, humanitarian organizations reached over 8.3 million people with humanitarian assistance, including winter-specific activities in the first quarter of the year. Activities aimed at ensuring that the most vulnerable people in Ukraine are adequately protected and able to cope with harsh weather conditions in a dignified manner will again increase in the coming months.

Under this revised Winter Response Plan, humanitarian partners are appealing for about US$435 million to deliver winter assistance to over 1.7 million people across Ukraine. This plan provides an overview of the activities outlined in the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) to address specific humanitarian needs caused or exacerbated by the cold season in Ukraine. The Plan will be carried out in support of the efforts by the Government of Ukraine, including national, regional and local authorities, and will be complemented by the regular humanitarian programming, which targets over 11 million people in need of assistance across Ukraine in 2023. At the same time, development actors are scaling up their recovery and reconstruction efforts, which will ultimately contribute to building the country’s resilience to the cold season and strengthening longer-term response systems.

The response will complement and build upon efforts carried out during the last cold season, when humanitarians distributed nearly 5,000 generators and provided winter support to hundreds of thousands of people. The generators provided in the last quarter of 2022 and the first months of 2023 will be essential to ensure electricity for hospitals, water pumping facilities, heat generation, schools, and places hosting displaced people. The assistance also included much-needed supplies and repairs of homes and preparation of collective centres for displaced people.

In the 2023-2024 winter response, humanitarians will prioritize support in front-line communities and regions, ensuring that assistance is provided as close as possible to people in need. In areas facing active hostilities or fighting, including Donetska, Dnipropetrovska, Kharkivska, Khersonska, Luhanska, Mykolaivska, Sumska and Zaporizka oblasts, the response will prioritize the repair of district heating systems and maintenance support, including after possible new attacks, to ensure warmth and protection to thousands of people impacted by the destruction of vital infrastructure. In addition to this, specific support to critical institutions like hospitals, clinics and social institutions, including through the provision of mobile boilers or other heating systems will be crucial to ensure continuity of vital services. Humanitarians will also distribute house repair materials, as well as winter clothes, heating appliances and other critical household items. The provision of agricultural and livestock inputs will also be crucial to ensure food security for people facing increased challenges to sustain their livelihoods.

In areas hosting a high number of displaced people, including Kyiv City, Lvivska and Odeska oblasts, the priority will be to support displaced people in collective centres, through the refurbishment of the sites and provision of winter materials. Across the country, humanitarian organizations will also provide displaced people with rental support and insulation of substandard homes to ensure their safety and wellbeing during the winter. Similar to areas close to the front line, the response across the country will also include repair and maintenance of energy and heating systems damaged or impacted by hostilities to ensure provision of vital services.

The response outlined in this Plan will be delivered via a combination of services, in-kind and cash assistance. Whenever feasible and appropriate, cash assistance will be prioritized, according to the vulnerability criteria, the access and proximity of functioning markets and the availability of the needed winter items and services. In areas close to the front line, where markets and services might remain disrupted, in-kind assistance will likely be the most feasible modality of assistance. In all regions, a range of services, including critical repairs, will complement the response package.