Tuesday Takes is back, and it’s racing toward the postseason. It has been a wild week: The Sun got that No. 1 seed, while Dallas scooped up the seventh playoff spot. Three teams are in the hunt for the final one (we’ll get to that), and the Aces announced they are retiring former San Antonio Stars guard Becky Hammon’s jersey.
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With less than a week of the regular season to go, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines in the W.
The three teams in the hunt for that last playoff spot
With the Mystics’ win over the Sky on Sunday, Washington (12-18) is officially in the driver’s seat for that eighth spot, but New York (11-19) and Los Angeles (11-19) are right on its heels. All three teams have two games remaining and have routes to the playoffs.
Washington gets in if …
- The Mystics go 2-0 against New York and Minnesota.
- The Mystics go 1-1 with a win over New York, and Los Angeles either loses its last two games or goes 1-1.
But, if the Mystics lose to New York, then things get interesting, and we enter a WNBA-like game of choose your own adventure.
New York gets in if … the Liberty beat both Connecticut and Washington, and if Los Angeles splits its final two games.
New York also gets in if … all three teams finish at 13-19 (New York beats Washington, loses to Connecticut; Washington loses to New York, beats Minnesota; Los Angeles wins out). In this situation, the first tiebreaker is the head-to-head winning percentage of all teams involved, and New York would have the advantage at 3-2 (.600) versus Washington (.500) and Los Angeles (.400).
But here’s where it gets really crazy:
If both New York and Los Angeles finish with 13-19 records and Washington loses out, we’d go on a real journey.
The first tiebreaker in this scenario is head-to-head winning percentage. But because the teams split the series 1-1, then it goes to the second tiebreaker, which is the team’s record versus opponents that finish the season at .500 or better.
In the case of the second tiebreaker, as it stands right now, six teams own a .500 or better record (Connecticut, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Seattle, Phoenix and Chicago). Chicago is the only team currently at risk of not being .500 or better at the end of the season. In this scenario, if Chicago loses to both Las Vegas and Indiana, then New York gets in because the Liberty would have the better record against the top five teams. However, if Chicago splits its games (staying at .500) or wins both (being above .500), then both New York and Los Angeles have the same record against teams with a .500 or better record.
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Then, we’d move on to the third tiebreaker, which is point differential between the two teams in their two head-to-head matchups. However, both teams won each of their games by three points.
So, we enter the fourth tiebreaker: Point differential in all games. This could change, but as it stands now, this tiebreaker would ultimately mean Los Angeles gets in because the Sparks’ point differential (-142) is better than the Liberty’s point differential (-207).
If somehow, after the next two games this fourth tiebreaker is also tied (highly unlikely, but heck, we’re at the fourth tiebreaker, so why quit now?), a coin toss would determine the eighth spot.
What about teams that definitely missed the playoff?
Well, it’s never too early to start talking about offseason and free agency moves. And for these teams, with no postseason awaiting, that time is now.
Indiana: Like the mercurial Mercury, Indiana is a team befitting its name — the feverish Fever. At times, I watch this group and really think it’s making headway, and at other times I have no idea what’s going on. In Sunday night’s game, the Fever clawed back from a 16-point deficit against a hot Minnesota team to take the lead heading into the fourth quarter. Ultimately, they’ve been competitive in many games; they just haven’t had enough firepower/chemistry/oomph (whatever it might be) to get over the finish line.
Enter: Free agency. Kelsey Mitchell, Tiffany Mitchell, Danielle Robinson and Jantel Lavender will still be under contract, and Julie Allemand — whose contract is suspended — can only negotiate with the Fever. The money eaten up by waiving Odyssey Sims ($119,000) and Lauren Cox ($34,315) will be back, so the Fever will have some wiggle room under the salary cap.
Our friends at HerHoopStats ran the odds for the 2022 WNBA draft lottery picks, and the Fever would be favored to get the No. 1 pick with New York right behind them in the No. 2 spot.
New York's loss last night drops them to 9th place, 0.5 games out of the playoffs. Therefore they currently have the 2nd-best odds at the top pick in the 2022 #WNBA Draft. New York in the lottery instead of Washington drops Atlanta to the 3rd spot. #WNBALotteryOdds #WNBATwitter pic.twitter.com/jrYwPGSm2T
— Her Hoop Stats (@herhoopstats) September 12, 2021
In this position, Indiana could go after a weapon at guard like Rhyne Howard or a Swiss army knife-like NaLyssa Smith. Or, the Fever could shock us all again and pull something similar to the move with Kysre Gondrezick (who hopefully will be making her return to the team after being out since July for personal reasons) by picking someone that most mock drafts don’t list until the third round. We’ll see. But, this team does seem to have at least some of the pieces in place, and you just have to wonder how much more needs to be organized before Mitchell can lead Indiana out of its playoff drought.
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Atlanta: The Dream are going to need to hire a GM and figure out their head coaching situation ASAP, because free agency could be a rollercoaster and the franchise is going to need to have all its front office and coaching people in place to make cohesive decisions.
Among the Dream’s unrestricted free agents: Sims, Courtney Williams, Elizabeth Williams, Shekinna Stricklen and Tiffany Hayes. And then there’s Chennedy Carter, who has been suspended since early July.
A new coach and GM could potentially mean a brand-new look for this team. Do the front-office personnel changes signal on-court personnel changes are coming? Perhaps. With the number of free agents available this offseason and with Renee Montgomery’s enthusiasm to make Atlanta a destination for players, there’s an opportunity to take some big swings. And, for the third year in a row, the Dream could have a lottery pick in their hands, so the addition of young talent in a really good 2022 class is an exciting possibility.
Let’s talk about that No. 1 seed though
The Sun’s winning streak is damn impressive, and the fact that they’ve been able to do it with their five starters each averaging at least 30 minutes a game is the cherry on top (and also, kind of how they built this streak).
To preserve themselves a bit, the Sun have intentionally played a bit slower and controlled the tempo against faster teams. By dictating the pace and slowing down opponents, teams don’t get nearly the shot attempts against the Sun as they do against running opponents. And because of the defensive pressure and Connecticut’s length, opponents’ shot attempts are contested.
“We know who we are; we’ve had 10 players all year,” coach Curt Miller said. “We have … a lot of veterans in that first unit, and we’ve extended minutes with those guys, and they’ve handled it all season. It’s a testament to their conditioning, but more than that it’s a testament to their competitiveness.”
In the last 12 games, opponents have averaged just 64 points on 71 possessions per game against the Sun, according to Pivot Analysis. Over that same stretch, the Sun have forced turnovers on one of out every five possessions, and they’ve held opponents to an offensive rebound rate of 14 percent (meaning, when teams do get contested looks, they don’t get second chances).
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The Sun held the Mercury, who were without Diana Taurasi on Saturday night, to 24 second-half points and five 3-pointers. Coming into the game, the Mercury had been on a 10-game win streak, averaging a league-best 88 points and 49 percent shooting (including 41 percent shooting on 3-pointers). But, like every other opponent since the Commissioner’s Cup, they hit the brick wall of defense and pacing that is Connecticut.
Said Jonquel Jones: “That’s been our identity all season — just being really tough, a team that plays for 40 minutes.”
And now, the Sun have the respeCT of every team in the league heading into the playoffs, and they’ve made themselves the team to beat. I don’t see anyone beating them in a series.
Becky Hammon’s jersey is headed to the rafters
The Las Vegas Aces retired Hammon’s No. 25 San Antonio Stars uniform (a little more than five years after the Stars retired the same uniform, and four seasons after the Stars moved to Vegas).
For Hammon, it was a huge honor, and for the league, it was an important step.
The Stars retired her No. 25 jersey in 2016 when the franchise was still in San Antonio, where Hammon played eight seasons. The team moved to Las Vegas and became the Aces in 2018, and owner Mark Davis has worked to tie these franchise histories together. Hammon’s jersey retirement makes her the first player to be honored in a relocated team’s new city.
“I really appreciate the Aces digging back into the program’s history and honoring the people that came before,” Hammon said. “I think that’s how you build culture, that’s how you build character within your organization. And I think Mark Davis and the ownership group trying to really make it a family affair and bring in the previous organizations and the players that impacted not just the Aces, but the Stars and the WNBA, and honoring that legacy is really special.”
"I was undrafted, played 16 years, and I wasn't supposed to be here but here I am."@BeckyHammon on her #WNBA journey 🧡 pic.twitter.com/1oplFGUOuQ
— WNBA (@WNBA) September 13, 2021
Throughout the season, the Aces have focused on bringing back alums from the former Utah Starzz and Stars, an initiative started by Davis’ experience in Las Vegas with the relocated Raiders working to connect with their former players from the team’s time in Oakland and Los Angeles.
“We want it to be the standard of what it should look like when you’re part of the Aces family,” team president Nikki Fargas said in a FOX 5 interview in August. “If you played five minutes or five years in a Utah or San Antonio uniform, you’re part of the Aces family.”
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It also brings up an interesting topic that Erica Ayala touched on in a piece last week that looked at what the WNBA could learn from folded franchises. While there are rafters to hang the uniforms from players who played with Utah or San Antonio (Las Vegas) or Detroit and Tulsa (Dallas) or Orlando (Connecticut), what about those who only played for Charlotte, Cleveland, Houston and Sacramento? What about those players who helped build the foundation for what the WNBA would and has become, but now have nowhere to call home?
“There is nowhere to formally retire the jerseys of WNBA greats like (Charlotte’s and Houston’s Dawn) Staley or Yolanda Griffith, who played for Sacramento,” Ayala wrote. “However, the legacy of the original franchises that folded live on in places like the Women’s Basketball Hall of Fame and the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.”
I’m not sure what the answer is, but it does seem prudent — as the league is in its 25th year — to start finding ways to properly honor WNBA icons in ways other professional sports teams across the country do.
Weezy makes it look too easy
Sometimes you’re the bug, sometimes you’re the windshield.
⛸️⛸️⛸️@EWeezy_For3eezy | #RootedinLA pic.twitter.com/Z6xz2QET7K
— Los Angeles Sparks (@LASparks) September 13, 2021
(Photo: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
